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Enough Already! 15 Things About Valuation We’re Tired of Hearing

I wouldn’t invest in property, but I am saying this is definitely a possibility that you need to consider when investing in property. Because if you’re investing in negatively geared properties hoping for capital growth forever and day, that might not happen. And what if Steve’s right? What if in a few years, the market does crash and.

you’ve invested negatively geared properties for capital growth and all of a sudden, you’ve got a property that is worth less than what you paid for it and you have to pay every single month because the property is negatively geared. It kind of reinforces what I’ve been talking about for.


years, anyway, which is one of the benefits of positive cash flow property is that you can continue to make money in whatever market.Steve talked about how rents don’t change as much when there’s a massive property crash.

Yes, they do decrease, but unlikely as much, because rents are more directly correlated with the income, rather than with how much people can borrow. So that was exciting to hear me talking about positive cash flow properties for all these years because we are preparing for this situation, if

the property market does crash or does go down, how accurate are online home valuations whether a burst and we’re losing %-% in a very short period of time, or maybe it stagnates or maybe it drops slightly. If we got positive cash flow property that is generating our income, hey, at least we can afford to pay our mortgage and hopefully we’re still making a profit on top of that as well.

Whereas people who are solely reliant on capital growth won’t in as good a position.So, positive cash flow, at the moment now when everything is growing, everyone kind of puts positive cash flow to the side and says, “Well, that’s not really.

a viable strategy.I can make $, in a year by investing in the growth market that just happened in Sydney.” And they’re right. Look, if you can consistently get those sorts of capital growth, then good on you.

The 3 Biggest Disasters in Valuation History

An idea of just how big this has become in Australia and why it’s so potentially dangerous.I’ll go back to sharing screens again. I want to show you this chart here. This is your level of mortgage debt compared to GDP in Australia and America. And you can see you go back to, we had about % of GDP as a mortgage debt level, they had about %.We reached equality in roughly in. When.

the prices hit, they started to slow down and then fall. They peaked at about % of GDP as a mortgage debt level and we were about the probably % mark. Now, America’s mortgage debt is about -% of its GDP and ours is%+. So that much additional debt’s been added to maintain the house price rise in Australia.Now, I’ve got to muck around with quite a few charts. This is work that I’m doing for a book so I haven’t quite put it all together properly yet, but here’s the chart that I want to show. This is looking at the – I’ve shown you the acceleration of.

mortgage debt in America and house price change relationship there. Now, people can say Australia is different.Well, no, it’s not. This is the Australian data. And it’s not quite as strong as the Americans in terms of the link, but you can see mortgage acceleration is driving house-price change. From, which is when this new bubble took off, right up to now, acceleration has been getting higher and higher.

So the red line is mortgage acceleration. That’sbeen what’s driven house prices up since. Now, at some point, and I think it’s happenings right now, that acceleration is going to start slowing down and that’s when the house prices start falling. So we’re seeing that turning up on the Australian data right now.

The Most Innovative Things Happening With Valuation

Long as we’re getting at least sixty percent of the reported listings we know that that’s a robust reflection of what’s happening in the marketplace now we move on we don’t report the whole week as others do we just report the Saturday snapshot and then we move on we don’t report or I don’t report on the four weeks results because that’s a different methodology and you always see lower clearance rates when you get the higher when you get the full results later in the week and that’s because-agents are human beings I think and the tend to obviously want to report saves rather than listings so early in the piece I’ll report of sale rather than the listing and more inclined to those clearance .

Rates the four clearance rates always tend to be lower than the Saturday clearance rates but that doesn’t matter because we only report the Saturday clearance rates which used the same methodology lots of gold her folks very passionate so we got a question here Sonia has a question for Dr. Wilson hi dr. well smart hi you’re very passionate and I love listening to you I have a question.

About Darwinproperty no one yeah I have an investment property over there which I bought a couple years ago now and has dropped and I’ve had to reduce the rent yep where do you see it going well look obviously I’ve just come back from Darrin and it’s a market that has been a very tough market it’s I guess the Perth of the north but a lot of the morning centers aren’t struggling at .

the moment and it is because of a significant fall in population growth or migration particularly now the Darwin market has fallen similarly to Perth same reasons as Perth but there are differences in the Darwin market compared to put the first one is that the Darwin still has all the capital-cities state the territory Darwin has the strongest economy unemployment rate in Darwin is under three percent still very strong economy now it was always going to be more volatile because it’s smaller market and therefore when younger people leaving or not. 

The same numbers coming in it would have a more severe  shorter term effect now somberly signs of that market is starting to bottom out we’re recording now a stabilization of vacancy rates houses in Darwin so there’s now vacancy rates are the first sign that you should-always look for in a market that staying to bottom out now vacancy rates endowment are now staying to look a lot more reasonable .